682
FXUS66 KSEW 142113
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
113 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system moves across the area late today
into Sunday for steadier rain, gusty winds. Post-frontal showers
on Sunday. Unsettled conditions continue Monday with troughing
over the western US. Another low approaches the west coast
midweek with the majority of the precipitation focused south of
western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...Increasing clouds
this afternoon with localized showers ahead of the next frontal
system approaching the region from offshore. Steadier rain
moves onshore late this afternoon into this evening, moving into
Puget Sound tonight. Steadier precipitation then slides into
the Cascades by Sunday morning. South winds also increase with
this front, with the strongest winds along the coast and San
Juan Islands. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these areas
with gusts of 50 to 55 MPH. A Wind Advisory has also been issued
for Whidbey Island and Admiralty Inlet region with southeast
wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH. Elsewhere, breezy conditions are
expected, mainly ranging 25 to 40 MPH. Post-frontal showers
develop on Sunday, resulting in unsettled conditions at times.
In addition, weak instablilty (150-300 J/kg) may lead to
localized thunderstorms, particularly along the coast and
Olympic Peninsula. Otherwise, winds remain elevated on Sunday,
but slowly ease during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued for the San Juan Islands again Sunday
morning before tides gradually decrease through this week.
Upper troughing over the western US on Monday will keep a
limited threat for showers over the area, especially for the
Olympic Peninsula and Cascades. Highs in the mid to upper 50s
through Sunday will cool on Monday to the low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Drier conditions are
expected on Tuesday as troughing moves into the interior
Rockies. A deep surface low approaches the west coast on
Wednesday. Ensembles keep the majority of the precipitation
focused south of western Washington with this system, however a
chance of precipitation remains due to some lingering
uncertainty in the proximity of the system. The system moves
onshore across CA on Thursday, allowing for another period of
drier conditions late week. Uncertainty increases further in
ensembles by next weekend, but indications of troughing
offshore may result in the return of a more active pattern. JD
&&
.AVIATION...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions this afternoon
with some areas of low clouds associated with scattered showers
across portions of the area, as well as increasing mid and high
level clouds as a frontal system approaches the coast. Low-end
VFR conditions should prevail for most through this evening
before rain begins to arrive to the coast this evening and will
move through the interior overnight. A brief period of MVFR cigs
(and vis along the coast in heavier rain) will be possible
overnight, otherwise ceilings look to remain VFR (in the
3500-4500 ft range) through much of Sunday as scattered showers
continue. There is a low (15-20%) chance of isolated
thunderstorms, mainly along the coast.
South/southeasterly winds 8-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt will increase
tonight, with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the entire area by late
tonight. Locally higher gusts 30-40 kt possible along the coast and
through the northern interior overnight. Winds will peak overnight
but remain elevated through much of Sunday with continued gusts of
15-25 kt as winds will be very slow to decrease.
KSEA...VFR conditions with vicinity showers through this afternoon.
The next front is slated to arrive tonight with steadier rainfall
and the potential for a brief period of MVFR cigs overnight between
around 09-15Z Mon. Surface winds remain S/SE. Winds 8-12 kt today,
increasing to 10 to 15 kt overnight with gusts up to 25 kt possible
through early Sunday. Winds will begin to slowly ease Sunday
afternoon with VFR conditions continuing.
62
&&
.MARINE...A strong low pressure system will send a cold front
across the area waters as the low center tracks to the northeast
along the British Columbia coast. Winds will continue to
increase across the area, with winds peaking overnight. Storm
Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters with peak wind
gusts overnight forecast up to 40- 50 kt, particularly across
the offshore coastal waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect
across the most of the interior waters, with a Small Craft
Advisory in effect for the Puget Sound. Winds will begin to
decrease Sunday morning but will do so gradually, with most
locations seeing Small Craft Advisory level winds through much
of the day on Sunday. Winds will finally ease over the coastal
waters and northern Salish Sea Sunday night.
Seas are slowly easing from their maximum last night, but will
remain in the 16-20 ft range before the strong winds overnight raise
seas back to around 20-22 ft. These short period waves will ease
fairly quickly early Sunday morning to around 15-18 ft before the
westerly long-period swell arrives late Sunday morning, with waves
peaking in the afternoon/evening hours. Seas will rise to a maximum
of around 20-22 ft at around 16 seconds, but could be as high as 25
ft farther offshore.
With higher pressure building across the area on Monday, this will
allow for a break in the activity, with winds remaining light and
allowing for waves to decrease throughout the day, lowering to
around 10-12 ft by early Tuesday.
A low pressure system will form over the open northeast Pacific and
move off to the southeast of Washington Tuesday into Wednesday,
making landfall over northern California late Wednesday. While
somewhat distant, this system will allow winds to turn offshore and
increase, as well as increasing waves for the next round of
headlines mid-week. Calmer conditions under high pressure are then
favored Thursday into the end of the week.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The potential for flooding continues on the
Skokomish River with another round of steadier rainfall tonight
into early Sunday. A Flood Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor County
Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon PST Sunday for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for Island County-Port
Townsend Area.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Puget Sound and
Hood Canal.
Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
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